Don’t underestimate their capabilities… New York Times: Reducing Ansar Allah to the role of an “Iranian proxy” leads to wrong estimates

The New York Times warned yesterday, Friday, against reducing the Ansar Allah movement in Yemen to the role of an “Iranian proxy,” considering that the movement has developed its own interests and calculations and has become an influential party in regional and international equations whose capabilities should not be underestimated.

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This came in an analysis published by the newspaper for researcher Alexandra Stark, who affirmed that “Ansar Allah was viewed years ago as being of the second or third tier within the so-called ‘Axis of Resistance’ linked to Iran, which led policymakers to deal with them as subordinates to Tehran. However, she pointed out that their benefit from Iranian weapons, training, and expertise does not negate their possession of independent interests and their acting according to their own calculations.”

The researcher indicated that recent developments have shown Ansar Allah’s transition from a Yemeni player to an influential party in files beyond the local arena, particularly navigation security and regional conflicts, benefiting from Yemen’s geographical location overlooking the Red Sea and Bab Al-Mandeb.

Stark considered that one of the most prominent strengths of Ansar Allah lies in their ability to choose the timing of escalation to serve their objectives and enhance their negotiating position, considering that their entry into any confrontation should not be automatically interpreted as a response to an Iranian request.

According to the analysis, Yemen’s location allows Ansar Allah to influence navigation through the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait, through which a significant portion of global maritime trade passes. The importance of the Red Sea is also linked to the Suez Canal, which represents a major passage for energy shipments and trade between Asia, Europe, and North America.

She added that Ansar Allah has demonstrated, during what she described as the “support war,” their ability to use low-cost means, including drones, missiles, and unmanned boats, to target ships in the Red Sea, which raised insurance and shipping costs and forced ships to take longer routes around Africa.

She pointed out that the disruption of navigation through Bab Al-Mandeb gains greater importance with the continuation of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, especially for Saudi Arabia, which relied on transferring part of its oil via pipeline to Yanbu port to reduce its dependence on Hormuz, considering that disrupting the alternative route multiplies pressures on global energy trade.

Stark concluded that any future understandings between Iran and international powers will not necessarily mean that Ansar Allah will automatically act according to them, warning that dealing with them as a party without independent decision-making could lead to miscalculations.

She called for understanding Ansar Allah’s interests, objectives, and own calculations when dealing with regional developments, considering them an active party in the Yemeni and regional equation, not merely an extension of Iranian policy.