Intelligence information revealed on Thursday an escalating arms race between the UAE and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia after the dispute between the two sides enters a more dangerous phase where political differences are being surpassed by a strategic conflict over military alliances, influence, and the future structure of Gulf security, particularly in the post-war on Iran phase.
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According to what the “Dark Box” website published, citing intelligence information, “the simultaneous military deployment—Pakistani forces inside Saudi Arabia versus Egyptian forces inside the UAE—shows each party’s tendency to build separate security axes instead of maintaining a unified Gulf security system, amid fears of regional escalation involving Iran on one side and Israel and the US on the other.”
The website affirms in its report that “the region is no longer dealing with the Saudi-Emirati dispute as merely temporary differences between partners.” According to intelligence assessments, it is moving towards an increasing division into competing military camps, driven by divergent regional visions and different security calculations, with declining levels of trust between the two most powerful Gulf states.”
The report explains the difference in paths between the two sides, indicating that Saudi Arabia deals with the post-Iran war environment through strategic frameworks focusing on deterrence, stability, and long-term security partnerships to protect economic transformation and internal stability. Meanwhile, according to the report, the UAE tends to expand its integration into security and military alliances linked to the US and Israel while expanding intervention networks regionally.
It noted that the recent Saudi-Pakistani military deployment is among the most prominent indicators of this shift, as the Reuters agency revealed Pakistan’s deployment of thousands of soldiers, advanced fighter jets, drones, and Chinese-made HQ-9 air defense systems inside Saudi Arabia, under the joint strategic defense agreement between the two countries.
It added that security officials described this force as a high-efficiency deployment aimed at supporting Saudi defenses in the event of any future regional escalation.
It noted that Saudi Arabia’s increasing reliance on Pakistani military support reflects escalating Saudi fears of regional instability after the war with Iran, particularly following Iranian missile and drone attacks that exposed the vulnerability of Gulf infrastructure, energy facilities, aviation, and strategic economic projects.
It explained that Riyadh is increasingly aware that protecting internal stability and the economic ambitions of Vision 2030 require enhancing defensive capabilities while avoiding engagement in any regional escalation that might threaten the Kingdom’s economic transformation plans.
Read also: American agency reveals Emirati attempts to implicate Gulf countries in the war against Iran
The UAE Heads in a Different Direction:
It indicated that the UAE appears to be heading in a completely different direction, as Abu Dhabi sees military-security integration and strong regional presence as two fundamental pillars of its geopolitical strategy.
It affirmed that the positioning of Egyptian Rafale aircraft and Egyptian military personnel inside Emirati territory has become one of the most prominent manifestations of this new security doctrine.
It explained that this deployment is officially presented as part of Arab security cooperation and Gulf defense coordination, yet its timing, coinciding with the resumption of negotiations concerning the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, has sparked wide controversy in the region.
It noted that regional political circles interpreted this timing as an indication that Abu Dhabi is using security arrangements and Gulf military partnerships to influence the outcomes of the Sudanese crisis and enhance its regional influence.
The Sudanese Crisis as a Pivotal Element:
It added that despite the absence of official evidence confirming conditional arrangements linking Egyptian military support to Sudan negotiations, this perception itself has become politically highly sensitive.
It explained that many observers see this as a reflection of a broader Emirati strategy based on integrating military cooperation with political negotiations, economic influence, and regional influence operations within a unified geopolitical framework.
It affirmed that the Sudanese crisis remains a pivotal element for understanding these tensions, explaining that Egypt views Sudan from the perspective of national security, Nile water policies, Red Sea stability, and maintaining central state institutions, while Saudi Arabia leans towards a policy of containment and stability to protect Red Sea security and prevent long-term regional chaos.
It noted that the UAE is accused in regional political discourse of adopting a more interventionist strategy, relying on parallel security networks and supporting competing political actors inside Sudan.
Read also: The revelation of a secret visit by Netanyahu to the UAE during the war on Iran
Disparity Reflects the Depth of Division:
It explained that this disparity reflects the depth of the Saudi-Emirati division, which has now appeared on several regional fronts, after years of close partnership in Yemen, Gulf security, energy policies, and regional diplomacy.
It clarified that relations between the two countries have gradually deteriorated due to disagreements over OPEC production policies; economic competition; relations with Iran; influence in the Red Sea, Sudan, and Yemen; in addition to the growing Emirati relations with Israel.
It indicated that the Iranian war contributed to accelerating this fragmentation, as Saudi Arabia adopted a cautious stance focused on de-escalation and avoiding a wide war to protect the economy, internal stability, and investor confidence.
It added that the UAE, in contrast, moved towards adopting a more hardline security stance, closely linked to coordination with Washington and Tel Aviv, raising Gulf concerns that Abu Dhabi is contributing to turning the region into a wider geopolitical confrontation arena.
It revealed that secret intelligence sources speak of growing concern among Gulf officials about the emergence of competing military blocs within the Gulf Cooperation Council itself, instead of the Council remaining a unified security organization.
It explained that the deepening Saudi alliance with Pakistan reflects a traditional defensive framework based on deterrence and stability, while the UAE is working to build a separate axis based on advanced military integration, external partnerships, and wider geopolitical interventions.
It noted that the emergence of parallel military and security systems within the Gulf threatens to entrench long-term regional fragmentation, instead of enhancing collective Gulf security.
It added that the current arms race increases mistrust, polarization, and competition among Gulf powers themselves and also raises serious fears of the expansion of any future war between Iran on one side and Israel, the US, and their regional allies on the other.
It explained that the presence of Pakistani forces inside Saudi Arabia and Egyptian forces inside the UAE could quickly lead to the internationalization of any future regional confrontation and expand its scope.
It affirmed that the economic repercussions could be equally severe, as Gulf stability depends on energy security, air and sea navigation, and investor confidence, all factors threatened by the expansion of competing military alliances.
Fears of Emirati-Israeli Integration:
It noted that critics warn that the Gulf is moving towards a model resembling competing regional military camps, instead of maintaining traditional Gulf strategic coordination.
It added that the growing Emirati military integration with Israel increases Arab concerns, as many see Abu Dhabi’s strategy as contributing to militarization, polarization, and instability instead of supporting collective Arab security.
The report concluded by affirming that the Saudi-Emirati dispute is no longer merely a political difference between two Gulf states but has transformed into a wider strategic conflict over regional leadership, military doctrine, alliance structures, and the future of Gulf security.
It noted that the simultaneous expansion of Pakistani military deployment inside Saudi Arabia and Egyptian deployment inside the UAE represents an indicator of the emergence of competing Gulf security structures, shaped by divergent geopolitical visions and increasing regional mistrust.
It affirmed that the Gulf region is entering one of its most fragile and dangerous phases, amid escalating arms races, competing alliances, and geopolitical tensions threatening to reshape the regional order in a more turbulent and militarized manner.
Source: “Dark Box” + Al-Masaa Press
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