On Tuesday, the Yemeni file underwent significant political and military developments. The question remains whether these developments will help bridge the divide among Yemenis or if they are merely a precursor to a new cycle of conflict?

Exclusive – Al-Khabar Al-Yemeni:

In the Omani capital, UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg is stepping up his meetings with regional mediators and representatives of various Yemeni factions, whether loyal to the coalition or stationed on the ground, as stated in a release from his office.

Although the meetings are limited to the Ansar Allah movement, the de facto authority in northern Yemen, and the Al-Islah Party, which has been formed from the remnants of parties and coalitions in southern Yemen, their timing holds several significant dimensions, the most prominent of which is related to negotiations on the economic file, as the party still controls the most important oil regions in the north and east of the country, reaching the south. This may be a successful card in placing the party on the negotiating table, despite lacking influence on the ground like other pro-coalition forces, notably the Southern Transitional Council.

Theoretically, presenting Al-Islah as a representative of the Yemeni forces loyal to the alliance could potentially break the ice that is hindering Yemeni negotiations, given its control over the oil-rich regions of the Hadhramaut plateau, Marib, as well as the oil-producing areas in Shabwa. Nevertheless, in practice, reaching an agreement, regardless of its terms, seems challenging, particularly on the economic side, due to the conflicting international and regional agendas regarding oil and gas regions.

Saudi Arabia, which has been leading a war on Yemen since 2015 and sees the oil regions in the east of the country as a strategic gain, has begun escalating against the party in the valley and desert of Hadhramaut, aiming to secure its winning card in negotiations. Meanwhile, despite America granting the party the green light to negotiate with Sana’a and providing political and financial support, their escalation in the north through intensified airstrikes threatens to undermine any convergence, as Sana’a previously rejected linking the file of operations supporting Gaza to any negotiations on Yemen.

The international movement and indirect meetings between the Al-Islah and the Ansar Allah movement may be part of peace arrangements in Yemen, which were previously crowned by the opening of important roads between the areas of their control in the west and east of the country, but its timing suggests that America is attempting to reshape the scene by orchestrating a full-fledged civil war or portraying it, despite Saudi Arabia’s failure in achieving this. This scenario potentially paves the way for America to support a military escalation led by the Al-Islah to protect Israeli occupation.