On Tuesday, Yemen witnessed an unprecedented Emirati escalation within the context of the conflict with Saudi Arabia. But what are its dimensions in terms of timing? What is the possibility of its battle erupting? And what is its relationship to regional files?
Exclusive – Al-Khabar Al-Yemeni:
The new Emirati move is concentrated in Hadhramaut, the largest Yemeni governorate by area and the most important in terms of wealth and strategic location due to its proximity to the Saudi border and its position on the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Since the start of the war on Yemen, the governorate has been the target of Saudi and Emirati ambitions. Despite the entrenched Saudi influence in its communities, the UAE succeeded, months after the war on Yemen began, specifically in 2016, in gaining a foothold on the coast through an agreement with Al-Qaeda, which had controlled the city of Al-Mukalla and left it peacefully.
Over the past ten years, the governorate has been the most prominent file in the Emirati-Saudi conflict. However, despite the pace of clashes at times, Abu Dhabi maintained an approach that did not provoke Saudi Arabia, which views the valley and desert of the governorate, known as the Oil Plateau, as having a national dimension for itself.
During the stages of the Riyadh Agreements hosted by Saudi Arabia, the Hadhramaut file remained strongly present, based on dividing the coast for the UAE and the oil for Saudi Arabia.
This approach seems to have ended now, and the UAE has decided to settle the battle for the Oil Plateau with new formations, for which it has summoned mercenaries from various countries around the world, from Latin America to Africa. This is an indication that Abu Dhabi has decided to settle the battle definitively.
Although the UAE is trying to find a local cover by pushing a member of the Presidential Council, Faraj Al-Bahsani, to launch the battle, the summoning of mercenaries, according to what the Tribal Alliance is saying, indicates that it does not rely on its factions.
So far, the extent of the Emirati ability to settle the battle, whose spark was actually ignited days ago by an incursion of the so-called “Security Support” faction, called similarly to the “Rapid Support Forces” in Sudan, and which clashed with forces loyal to Saudi Arabia known as the Tribal Alliance on the outskirts of the valley, is unknown.
However, the timing of the UAE’s move regarding the Oil Plateau file specifically in Hadhramaut carries regional dimensions. It coincides with the arrival of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to the American capital on a visit considered the first in years, where the Sudan file, which the UAE is pushing to settle in favor of its factions, tops the agenda.
Prior to the visit, the UAE expressed concerns that the visit would constitute a turning point in the Sudan file, which Saudi Arabia strongly supports the other side of, represented by the Sudanese Army.
American media quoted Emirati officials as expecting Bin Salman to push President Trump to intensify pressure on the UAE to stop arming the Rapid Support Forces and end the war, which Abu Dhabi fears, as it relies on the support to enhance its economic gains, whether by controlling the gold mountains or oil regions.
It is, therefore, a message through which the UAE is trying to choke Saudi Arabia by the neck: either avoid escalation in Sudan or face a new looming danger at its borders, so that the course of the battle in this region remains linked to the course of events accompanying Bin Salman’s visit to the US.
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