Western assessments: Sana’a will firmly strike deep into Riyadh and Abu Dhabi at the lowest escalation targeting it

The Yemeni and regional arena is currently living through a pivotal moment where political calculations intersect with military transformations, while international estimates compete in an attempt to read the course of events and evaluate the current situation, along with the calculations of peace and war within the trajectory of the war on Yemen—a war initiated by Saudi Arabia within a broad international coalition that has not ceased for over ten years.

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Amidst this situation, and in an attempt to extrapolate these contexts and deconstruct the problematic situation, the American research center “Soufan” presented an analytical reading in recent hours, examining the latest developments of the Yemeni scene in the south and the intentions of the war coalition on Yemen led by Saudi Arabia, including explicit warnings to Riyadh and Abu Dhabi about the consequences of any potential escalation against Sana’a.

The essence of this reading confirms that Yemen has become a central axis in the regional security equation and that the recent military and political moves by the forces of the war coalition on Yemen, its international backers, and their tools inside Yemen seek to redraw the form of the Yemeni state and the landscape of the war on the country in general. At the same time, it claims the existence of deep divisions between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi—which Sana’a denies, considering it a deceptive prelude paving the way for an aggressive move against Yemen.

The center claims that the sudden attack recently carried out by the Emirati-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) forces in Hadramout reflects the reality of the explosion of old tensions between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh and reveals the first fundamental change in the political and military scene since the ceasefire agreement between Sana’a and Riyadh in 2022. The center’s reading also clarifies that the advance of the Council’s forces towards Seiyun and their control of the palace, airport, and oil facilities, reaching the outskirts of Al-Mahrah, reflects a secessionist trend that Abu Dhabi is working to cement by supporting the secessionist Council, which was established in 2017 with the aim of reproducing the former Southern state and dividing the country in service of Gulf-Western agendas.

The center states explicitly that the years of war against Sana’a witnessed a temporary overcoming of differences between the coalition’s government and the Council with joint Saudi-Emirati support. However, the recent attack exploded this cohesion after Saudi sources confirmed to the center the beginning of the withdrawal of military units from confrontation areas towards the Saudi interior—a step the center claimed is an indicator of declining military coordination between the two allies.

According to Soufan, Hadramout governorate, which possesses about 80% of Yemen’s oil reserves, has become a central axis in the negotiation track, as Sana’a demands a fixed share of the revenues to fund the salaries of employees in the south. The STC’s military move is a clear attempt to sabotage the Riyadh-Sana’a talks and enable the Council to impose a new field reality before any final agreement.

The center sees that the Emirates and its allies are expanding efforts to control Yemeni resources, ports, and oil sites to use them as a pressure card against the northern regions to force additional concessions. Meanwhile, analysts cited by the center believe that Abu Dhabi is moving to weaken the coalition’s government—Al-Alimi’s government—or bypass it due to its association with groups the Emirates considers hostile, like Islah.

In summary, this reading by the center—which disregarded the political statements from Sana’a denying the existence of any real and fundamental disagreement between the forces of the war coalition on Yemen, represented by Saudi Arabia and the Emirates—emphasized that any escalation against Sana’a, whether by a Gulf decision and direct action or through proxies, will lead to wide-ranging consequences, including the resumption of missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, and with firmness.