Is Saudi Arabia losing its influence in Yemen after ten years of war?

Report – Al-Khabar Al-Yemeni:

After ten years of Saudi Arabia leading a broad military coalition in 2015 against Yemen in an attempt to reshape the Yemeni political landscape in its favor, peace in Yemen was nearly achieved, according to former UN envoy Jamal Bin Omar. In televised statements, he confirmed that Yemenis were on the verge of reaching a comprehensive agreement before the Saudi military intervention. Today, Riyadh’s influence in the north and south has become more limited than ever, amidst the rise of new local powers and an increasingly fierce competitive struggle between Saudi Arabia and its coalition partner, the Emirates.

Northern Yemen: Nearly Non-Existent Saudi Influence:

Since 2015, the equation has fundamentally changed in the northern governorates. The Sana’a government has tightened its control over most northern areas, bolstering its military power and popular status, which has made Riyadh lose the ability to influence the course of events.
Today, Saudi Arabia possesses no actual presence in northern Yemen, following the diminished role of local forces allied with it and the cohesion of Sana’a’s authority, which has become a regional player that can’t be bypassed. Saudi Arabia now only has the forces of the Islah party in the cities of Marib and Taiz, but it suffers from weakness and doesn’t seem capable of fighting large-scale battles.

The South: Emirati Presence and Saudi Retreat:

In the southern governorates, the scene is taking a more complex turn. In recent days, the Emirati-backed Southern Transitional Council has extended its control over vast areas in Al-Mahrah and Hadramout, following the withdrawal of forces from the First Military Region, which is affiliated with the Islah party, Saudi Arabia’s traditional ally.

Despite Saudi pressure to withdraw STC forces from Hadramout and replace them with Riyadh-loyal “Nation Shield” forces, the STC leadership refuses, relying on broad Emirati support and significant field capabilities.

Observers confirmed that Abu Dhabi pushed its forces towards the Wadi Hadramout area bordering Saudi Arabia to impose a new fait accompli, exploiting its understanding that Riyadh does not wish to open a direct confrontation with the STC, especially since it has not signed a final peace agreement with Sana’a.

Erosion of Saudi Tools in the South:

Today, Saudi Arabia relies on a key force in the southern governorates, the “Nation Shield” forces, formations established by Riyadh two years ago, but they lack the full capability to confront STC forces.

In an attempt to compensate for this decline, Riyadh has resorted to political pressure through the Chairman of the Presidential Leadership Council, Rashad Al-Alimi, who described the STC’s recent moves as a “coup” during his meeting with Western ambassadors, in an attempt to obtain international pressure on the STC and force it to retreat from its recent steps. Traditional parties and a fragmented parliament also announced their support for Al-Alimi’s position, despite their actual presence inside Yemen being almost non-existent.

Riyadh Facing a Difficult Reality:

Political analyses agree that Saudi influence in Yemen is going through a critical phase, as its influence in the south is threatened, while it has completely lost its influence in the north.

Analysts believe that Riyadh is now seeking only to solidify its control in the eastern governorates adjacent to its borders. However, this very goal seems prone to failure amidst the rise of the STC, the expansion of Emirati influence, and the changing balance of power on the ground.

Observers confirm that Saudi Arabia’s current situation is the result of accumulations of erroneous and aggressive policies towards Yemen over the past years, which caused it to lose the greater part of its influence in this country.

They also affirmed that this does not apply only to Saudi Arabia, but that the Emirates will also lose its influence in southern Yemen in the coming days, especially since it pursues an aggressive policy towards Yemen, noting that this approach will undoubtedly lead to it losing its influence in favor of new national forces.