Western enticement for Saudi Arabia to re-escalate with Yemen

The US of America and the Western coalition have failed to restore Israeli navigation to the Red Sea, despite the significant aggression Yemen has faced. However, American and Israeli attempts have not ceased, as Washington and Tel Aviv realize that abandoning the Red Sea arena to an adversarial force strikes at the geopolitical foundations of the entire hegemonic project.

Zakaria Al-Sharabi – Al-Khabar Al-Yemeni:

Based on this realization, the US, Britain, and other European countries, along with the Israeli entity, are pushing Saudi Arabia to re-escalate with Yemen. This is being done by employing its local proxies to intercept ships heading to the ports of Hudaydah governorate and supporting the capabilities of the so-called Coast Guard forces, whose training is supervised by London, and which receives its funding from Riyadh.

According to the latest reports, the Israeli agency JNS reports that Saudi Arabia is declaring its strongest intent in years to confront Yemen, moving to reassert its maritime control in the Red Sea and the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait after a period of cautious calm.

According to the agency, officials in the navy affiliated with the Saudi-backed Yemeni government reported that Riyadh has instructed allied naval units to prepare for joint inspection operations targeting ships bound for Hudaydah port, with support from the US and the UK. These operations shift inspections from Djibouti to the high seas, increasing operational risks and placing direct pressure on Sana’a.

Read also: The new normal in the Red Sea… How does navigation traffic reflect the major shifts created by Yemen?

Saudi Arabia has not yet issued any comment on the report, but its contents are not separate from the movements witnessed in the waters of the Red Sea in recent weeks, including the “Red Wave” maneuver hosted by Saudi Arabia with participation from Egypt, Jordan, Sudan, Djibouti, and the naval branch of the coalition-affiliated forces in Yemen.

According to the commander of the so-called Yemeni Naval Forces (affiliated with Riyadh), the drills focused on ship inspection operations and “securing sea lanes.”

Prior to that, Saudi Arabia and Britain launched a conference in September to support the “Coast Guard” in the government affiliated with Riyadh, with participation from over 40 countries and international organizations. The conference resulted in the announcement of a $10 million support package for these forces, before a British minister visited Aden last week to follow up on the preparations of these forces and emphasize their role in what he described as navigation security. This coincided with the renewal of UN sanctions on Yemen and London’s emphasis on inspecting ships bound for Yemen—a measure that is not security insofar as it is linked to obstructing the supply chain and hindering sea shipping to Yemen to restrict it economically.

These moves are not separate from the old-new American strategy announced by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, which stipulates that US partners bear the burdens of “regional security.” Although this doctrine is attributed to Obama, it represents a new American strategy more than being linked to a specific administration, making it an essential part of the defense partnership agreement between Washington and Riyadh, concluded during Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to Washington. The text of the agreement states that Saudi Arabia bears more responsibility in confronting common threats and ensures new financial contributions from Saudi Arabia to alleviate costs for the US, in addition to guaranteeing the American supply chain.

Despite the clear American-Western desire to push Saudi Arabia towards escalation with Yemen, this is inseparable from Riyadh’s desire to evade the obligations of peace. Since the de-escalation in April 2023, no progress has been made on the file. Saudi participation with Washington and Tel Aviv in establishing and managing a joint intelligence cell in the context of the aggression against Yemen has contributed to making Sana’a less confident in the peaceful path to closing the war file with Saudi Arabia.

Nevertheless, the results of the Red Sea battle have shown a shift in the balance of power in the region, with Sana’a emerging as a regional power possessing advanced capabilities. This shatters Riyadh’s expectations that the American and Israeli aggression would lead to Sana’a’s weakness, creating a favorable opportunity to return to war without bearing significant consequences.

Western media is trying to present a picture contrary to this reality as part of encouraging Riyadh, through reports in prominent media institutions like Intelligence Online and The Telegraph, claiming the weakness of Sana’a’s capabilities and its military and command structure. However, Riyadh, being directly involved with the Yemen file, may not be convinced by these reports. It would be a grave mistake for it to move towards escalation against Yemen, whether directly or through its proxies, as targeting Yemeni shipping lines will be met with similar targeting, and it may not be limited to Red Sea ports but could extend to all Saudi ports.

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