The American “Wall Street Journal” warned on Monday that Saudi Arabia faces a highly complex phase in light of the continuous Yemeni attacks that target its infrastructure and oil facilities, considering that the Kingdom has come before limited options to maintain its economic and security stability, at a time when Washington doesn’t appear ready for direct intervention against the Sana’a forces “Houthis.”
Exclusive Translation — Al-Khabar Al-Yemeni:
The newspaper published an article by the writer Karen Elliott House, in which she affirmed that the Kingdom, which the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was seeking a year ago to present as a leading power in the Arab and Islamic worlds, is today preoccupied with confronting threats that affect its ability to continue, with the attacks extending to vital facilities and oil installations, according to what the writer reported.
She added that attacks launching from Iraq and Yemen, and which it attributes to Iran’s proxies, inflicted damage on the Saudi infrastructure, noting that King Khalid Airport in Riyadh was closed for a week following attacks on the 10th of October, which resulted in the killing of 13 people and the wounding of more than 300 others, in addition to inflicting severe damage on two buildings at the airport.
According to an informed international source quoted by House, the repetition of the attacks pushed the Crown Prince to be moved between bomb-proof shelters in Jeddah.
She also noted that Mohammed bin Salman held an emergency meeting in Riyadh with Turkey and Pakistan, Saudi Arabia’s partners in the “Mecca Charter,” to discuss defense cooperation, but the attacks were not met with popular mobilization or a political discourse reflecting readiness for a long confrontation.
In an attempt to show cohesion, the Crown Prince appeared in a photo donating blood, with a smile-free face and a raised sleeve, while the Saudi Minister of Energy, who is his half-brother, affirmed that fear has no place in the dictionary of the Saudis.
However, the writer affirms that many inside the Kingdom feel fear, noting the non-activation of warning sirens to warn of the attacks, and the closure of schools for a week without a declared explanation, along with the absence of government officials who were accustomed to appearing to talk about the progress the Kingdom is achieving.
Strikes Threatening Oil and Diversification Plans:
House believed that the image in which the Crown Prince appeared donating blood reflects, symbolically, the situation of the Kingdom, whose revenues depend to a large degree on oil, at a time when the attacks seek to target this vital resource, in parallel with inflicting damage on the economic diversification projects, including tourism, minerals, and data centers.
She said that the continuation of the missile attacks makes Saudi Arabia less attractive to tourists and investors, noting the Ministry of Finance’s expectations of a contraction of the Kingdom’s gross domestic product by 3.6% during the year 2026, and a decline in oil activity by about 21.8%.
She added that total tourism declined by a rate ranging between 5% and 6% during the first five months of the year, according to government estimates, likely that the decline accelerated with the expansion of the scope of the attacks in the subsequent months.
The writer considered that the paradox lies in that the Kingdom, which is working to reduce its dependence on oil, faces the danger of losing the oil revenues that it needs to finance its economy and projects, at a time when the opportunities for compensation from other sectors are declining.
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Washington Does Not Intervene and Beijing Faces Accusations of Helping:
On the political and military side, House said that US President Donald Trump has left Saudi Arabia, until now, to confront the Houthis, despite Washington providing intelligence information and advice on its use, noting the non-appearance of an American readiness for direct intervention against them.
She added that China, which Riyadh sought to strengthen its relations with to reduce its dependence on the US, is providing assistance to Iran and the Houthis, according to what the writer reported.
She quoted a Saudi official as saying that Riyadh asked Beijing to stop helping Tehran, but Chinese officials deny providing such assistance.
She touched on a previous report by the “Wall Street Journal” that reported that the Houthis manufacture advanced medium-range missiles using components shipped from China.
According to the writer, “Israel offered to help Saudi Arabia in confronting the Houthis, but Mohammed bin Salman rejected the offer,” considering that the talk about establishing diplomatic relations between Riyadh and Tel Aviv has become, in light of the current developments, outside the scope of discussion.
She quoted a Western official as saying that Saudi Arabia faces the traditional dilemma of middle powers, as it must balance between its options and its alliances, while intercepting the missiles coming from Iran or the Houthis remains linked to obtaining American assistance.
In the same context, she quoted a Saudi official affirming that the relationship with the US will remain, over the coming decades, the most important bilateral relationship for the Kingdom.
A Long History of Disagreements with the US:
Despite what she described as the decline of American support, House warned against the early conclusion that Washington is abandoning Saudi Arabia, noting that the relationship between the two countries, extending for more than 80 years, has witnessed repeated disagreements and disappointments since the meeting that brought together US President Franklin Roosevelt with King Abdul-Aziz in 1945.
The writer reviewed stations of those disagreements, among them President Harry Truman’s recognition of Israel in 1948, despite what she said was a promise made by Roosevelt to the Saudi King to continue consultations regarding the competing Arab and Jewish demands in Palestine.
She also noted President John Kennedy’s ignoring in 1962 of the appeals of the then Saudi Crown Prince Faisal regarding recognition of the Yemen Arab Republic, at a time when the Saudi-Yemeni war was raging.
She also touched on the Saudi oil embargo on the US in 1973 in protest against Washington’s support for Israel, King Abdullah’s warning to President George W. Bush against the invasion of Iraq, and then Mohammed bin Salman’s endeavors to convince Trump not to attack Iran, which she said the American President did not respond to.
However, House believed that the US abandoning Saudi Arabia is unlikely, because allowing Iran or China to control the largest and richest Arab Gulf state doesn’t serve American interests.
But she noted that the American military presence in the Gulf may shrink as a result of the damages inflicted on the American bases in Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.
A Diplomatic Predicament and Fears of the Strait of Hormuz:
The writer said that Mohammed bin Salman still hopes to reach a diplomatic solution with Tehran, but achieving that remains difficult without the US, in light of Trump’s endeavors to obstruct Iranian oil exports and strangle the Iranian economy to pressure Tehran’s behavior.
She added that Trump pledged not to attack Iran before the American midterm elections, scheduled in November, but there are no clear indications regarding the steps he may take after the third of November.
House warned that launching new attacks on Iran and its oil facilities may lead to more Iranian attacks on the Saudi oil facilities.
She also quoted some officials expressing their fears that Trump would declare victory over Iran, based on the damages inflicted on the Iranian regime, and then allow Tehran to regain control over the Strait of Hormuz, in which the American navy is currently conducting patrols.
She believed that such a scenario may grant Iran the ability to pressure Saudi oil exports via Hormuz, while the Houthis may possess a similar ability to influence Saudi exports via the Red Sea and the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait.
She quoted one official as saying that a ceasefire is a positive matter, but the absence of certainty remains a bad matter.
The Capabilities of the Saudi Army Are in Question:
In her assessment of the internal situation, House said that it is too early to rule out Mohammed bin Salman’s continuation in leading the Kingdom, noting that he may assume the throne in the event of the death of his father, King Salman, who is 90 years old, and that he controls the Saudi army, despite the existence of opponents for him among the clerics and members of the royal family who were subjected to repression or imprisonment.
She added that American experts working with the Saudi army believe that the narratives about the existence of widespread resentment inside the military establishment are exaggerated, but they do not deny that the Saudi military capabilities showed clear weaknesses.
She considered that the inability of an army possessing a defense budget larger than the budgets of Iran and Israel to respond successfully to attacks carried out by the Sana’a forces “Houthis,” raises questions about the efficiency of the Saudi defense system.
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China Is the Most Prominent Beneficiary of the War:
In the conclusion of her assessment, House expected that Saudi Arabia would be viewed, when reviewing the war retrospectively, as the biggest loser, followed by the US, considering that the two parties showed an inability to achieve victory over forces lesser than them in capabilities.
She said that the US squandered international alliances whose building took decades, while China appears to be the most prominent beneficiary of the war, as the confrontation drains the American ammunition stockpiles, and occupies the American aircraft carriers that may need years before they become ready for new deployment operations, and also increases the decline in the Americans’ readiness to fight other wars.
The writer concluded by noting a potential warning to Taiwan, before quoting Prince Turki Al-Faisal, the former head of Saudi intelligence and former ambassador to the US, as saying that the world hasn’t witnessed throughout 81 years of his life this amount of ambiguity, adding that previous crises were met with efforts to solve them, while the current efforts often lead to worse results.
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